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Buy Low

When it comes to buying low, pitchers are significantly different than hitters.  So far, starting pitchers have only had four or five starts at the most, so the sample size is quite small. 

Wandy Rodriguez-Houston Astros 

38.0 IP | 1 W | 33 K | 4.26 ERA | 1.452 WHIP

Rodriguez is off to another poor start.  I say another poor start, because he has done this before.  Last year, Wandy’s ERA and WHIP were in this same territory at the All-Star break, but he rebounded and was one of the hottest pitchers down the stretch last year.  Even now, his strikeout rate is at his norm.  Buy Rodriguez now.

Matt Garza-Chicago Cubs

38.7 IP | 1 W | 51 K | 3.96 ERA | 1.371 WHIP

Garza has always been a favorite of mine, but he can be rather frustrating.  Just when you think he’s figured things out, Garza gets shelled.  Many thought that with his move to Chicago, Garza’s number would rise and to some extent, that has been true. Look at the strikeouts: 51 in 38+ innings.   He’s still young and the chances of acquiring him are slipping away.  Play up the ERA and WHIP and grab Garza for the Ks.

Chad Billingsley-Los Angeles Dodgers

34.1 IP | 2 W | 30 K | 4.46 ERA | 1.340 WHIP

Billingsley has also been a victim of bad luck early on, but his strikeout totals do not show it.  Maybe the distractions surrounding the Dodger organization are affecting him, but they probably won’t for long.  We expect the WHIP and ERA to come back down to around 1.300 and 3.30, respectively.  He’s a good bargain if you can pry him away from an owner who expected more.

Mat Latos-San Diego Padres

21.2 IP | 0 W | 25 K | 4.98 ERA | 1.340 WHIP

A lot has been written about the potential fall of Latos, and his early start appears to reflect that concern.  Yes, his 2010 workload was heavy,  and yes he has lost his last nine starts, but I’m a believer.  The Ks are still there and the Padres should take good care of their future ace.  Get him while you can.

Sell High

Kyle Lohse-St. Louis Cardinals

38.1 IP | 4 W | 24 K | 1.64 ERA | 0.73 WHIP

Lohse is one of the most obvious candidates on the list.  True, he has had flashes of brilliance like this, but he has never been able to sustain it for a whole season.  Even during his 15 win season in 2008, his WHIP was over 1.300.  Lohse also has a difficult time staying on the field , so sell while the selling is good.

Kevin Correia-Pittsburgh Pirates

40.1 IP | 4 W | 18 K | 2.90 ERA | 1.09 WHIP

Correia has also had limited success in the past, but that was in spacious Petco field.  Plus, Corriea does not post many strikeouts, making him essentially a three category pitcher at best.  Play up the early numbers and find a buyer soon.

Jason Marquis-Washington Nationals

34.1 IP | 3 W | 24 K | 2.62 ERA | 1.17 WHIP

Marquis has been many a fantasy owners  fools’ gold for several years now.  He seems to put a stretch like this together every year only to fall off rather quickly.  Expect  something more like an ERA in the 4.00+ range and a WHIP around 1.300.  If you can find a believer, deal him.

Jair Jurrjens-Atlanta Braves

22.0 IP | 2 W | 14 K | 1.23 ERA | 1.05 WHIP

Atlanta puts out a lot of great pitchers, but Jair Jurrjens isn’t one of them.  Even with his quick start, Jurrjens' strikeouts are not great, and he will eventually get hit.  He may figure things out, but let someone else take the risk.

Closing Thoughts

The closer shuffle continues in St. Louis and Chicago.  Mitchell Boggs did not get the most recent save opportunity.  That one went to Fernando Salas.  This situation looks like a true bullpen by committee for now.  Sergio Santos looks like he might be the White Sox closer for now, but the verdict is still out.  Sergio’s  numbers are good, but his first save was a shaky one, and there are still other options waiting for their turn.  Monitor the situation closely.  Craig Kimbrel blew two consecutive save opportunities, but he should be fine.

Next week:  Who’s the real deal among the early starters?  We’ll take a look at the numbers.